Republicans lead the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot by ten points, two points higher than the previous week, on a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.
While the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections — which are only 109 days away — after being in the minority for roughly four years, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed that 49 percent of likely U.S. voters would elect a Republican, compared to the 39 percent who said they would vote for the Democrat, giving the GOP a ten-point lead, two points larger than the previous week.
Four percent said they would vote for another candidate, and the other eight percent said they were unsure. However, the GOP’s lead rose from the previous week, when the lead spread eight points.
The ten-point lead in the poll on the Republican side comes roughly one month after the Supreme Court’s historic 5-4 opinion overturning Roe v. Wade through its ruling on the Dobbs case, which determined the right to abortion is not included in the Constitution, returning the issue of abortion laws and regulations to state legislatures.
The week following the decision, the Republicans only led the generic Congressional ballot by five points. So, while the Democrats were certain that focusing on advocating for the killing unborn Americans as a campaign talking point would win over constituents in the upcoming midterms, the polls show that using that topic would likely fail.
The Republicans’ ten-point lead shows that the party is gaining momentum in the polls, despite the Democrats’ best effort. However, with just under four months left until the election, there is still time for the generic ballot to move either way before November. But the Republicans have led the generic ballot all year.
Rasmussen had previously noted that in June 2018 — before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years — they only held a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
Additionally, June 2018 was slightly up from May 2018, at which time the Democrats only had a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. That June, the Democrats held a four-point advantage of 45 percent to 41 percent.
Plus, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans became extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.
In this poll, the Republican Party has a massive 17-point advantage with independents over the Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 27 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Additionally, 27 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today. The percentage of black voters who said they would vote for Republicans is up three percent from last week.
For Democrats, 57 percent of black voters and 44 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for them. Compared to last week, Democrats have lost one percent of black voters.
Furthermore, there is a vast difference in voter intensity between the parties, with 89 percent of Republican voters saying they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate and only 79 percent of Democrats saying the same thing.
The Rasmussen Reports survey was conducted from July 17 to 21 and questioned 2,500 likely U.S. voters. The survey had a two percent margin of error and a 95 percent confidence level.